The 2018 season is here!
It’s a clean slate, with all owners tied for first place at 0 wins. Will this be your year?
Although no games have been played, we do know a little bit about the strength of each owner using Elo ratings, so we can make some early predictions. Elo ratings from the end of the 2017 season have been reverted back towards the mean slightly, and are shown in the table below.
Simulating the 2018 season 10,000 times, John L is our most likely regular season champion, with a 22.1% chance of taking home the title.
| Owner | Rating | YTD Wins | Sim Wins | P(1st) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John L | 1552 | 0 | 7.60 | 0.221 |
| Andrew F | 1551 | 0 | 7.50 | 0.208 |
| Steve C | 1549 | 0 | 7.45 | 0.198 |
| John N | 1521 | 0 | 7.01 | 0.147 |
| Steve F | 1518 | 0 | 6.76 | 0.127 |
| Nathan S | 1454 | 0 | 5.58 | 0.045 |
| Jeff M | 1438 | 0 | 5.28 | 0.034 |
| Craig B | 1418 | 0 | 4.83 | 0.021 |
Predicted Win Totals
The graphic below shows the distribution of possible win totals for each owner generated by simulating the remaining 13 weeks of the season 10,000 times.
Predictions for Week 1
| Matchup | Probability |
|---|---|
| John N over Craig B | 0.64 |
| Steve C over Steve F | 0.54 |
| Nathan S over Jeff M | 0.52 |
| John L over Andrew F | 0.50 |